Trade Recommendation Metrics

All xbt.social Trade Recommendations issued during 2015 are listed below, including Trade Recommendations that had been issued but never saw their entry conditions fulfilled.

Trades that generated a profit are classified as “Completed” and those trades that had their entry conditions fulfilled but where price subsequently moved against the position are classified “Loser”.

Current (“Open”) Trade Recommendations are accessible via the latest Analysis Update.

Trade prices are shown in USD (Bitfinex Price) and CNY (BTC-China price) and metrics are calculated using the Bitfinex BTC/USD price for uniformity. The columns are:

  • Stop Loss – reflects the USD price distance of the recommended stop loss below entry price for each trade.
  • Draw Down – the USD distance that price had moved below the entry price after the position had been opened.
  • Distance – the USD difference between the trade’s open price and close price.

Leveraged Profits (reflected as amount of BTC):

  • 1:1 – unleveraged profit gained from buying BTC using 75% of cumulative account funds at the open price and then selling the position at the close price (USD profit amount expressed in BTC). Short positions are not traded.
  • 2.5:1 – leveraged profit generated by a 10 BTC margin position leveraged 2.5:1
  • 20:1 – leveraged profit generated by a 10 BTC margin position leveraged 20:1

Current xbt.social Trade Recommendation Win:Lose ratio is 36:8

Profit and Loss is expressed differently than previously done:

The unleveraged (1:1) account uses 75% of cumulative earnings for each Buy TR, and yields 41.5 BTC profit for 2015.

The leveraged virtual margin account (20:1) profit/loss is not accumulated, and each Buy and Sell TR is traded with a constant 10 BTC. The cumulative profits are 89.4 BTC for 2015.


Completed Trade Recommendations

Description
Open Date
Open Price
(USD)
Close Date
Close Price
(USD)
Target
Stop Loss
Draw Down
(USD)
Distance
(USD)
1:1
(BTC)
2.5:1
(BTC)
20:1
(BTC)


2015-12-24 02:36:00
440
2015-12-25 08:00:00
450
470 USD
3150 CNY
5
30
1
10
0.2
0.7
0.9
2015-12-15 00:00:00
445
2015-12-16 04:00:00
453
470 USD
3200 CNY
5
30
1
8
0.2
0.5
0.7
2015-12-10 13:10:00
415
2015-12-12 04:00:00
440
430 USD
2800 CNY
5
30
2
25
0.6
1.7
2.4
2015-12-09 00:00:00
400
2015-12-09 16:00:00
411
420 USD
2850 CNY
5
30
1
11
0.3
0.8
1.1
2015-11-29 12:00:00
360
2015-11-30 13:00:00
370
500 USD
2800 CNY
5
30
1.4
10
0.3
0.8
1.1
2015-11-26 04:00:00
330
2015-11-28 00:00:00
354
360 USD
2350 CNY
5
30
2.5
24
0.7
1.9
2.9
2015-11-15 14:00:00
330
2015-11-16 15:00:00
322
300 USD
1860 CNY
5
30
2
8
n/a
0.6
1.0
2015-10-27 12:00:00
290
2015-10-30 11:00:00
315
315 USD
2050 CNY
5
30
2.1
25
0.9
2.1
3.4
2015-10-01 15:47:00
240
2015-10-07 03:00:00
248
250 USD
1600 CNY
5
30
2.5
8
0.3
0.8
1.3
2015-09-14 16:00:00
233
2015-09-22 09:00:00
228
207 USD
1350 CNY
5
50
2
5
n/a
0.5
0.9
2015-09-07 12:00:00
240
2015-09-09 04:00:00
241
254 USD
1600 CNY
5
30
1.2
1
0.0
0.1
0.2
2015-08-15 20:00:00
265
2015-08-19 00:00:00
254.70
252 USD
1560 CNY
5
30
2
10
n/a
0.9
1.5
2015-07-29 00:00:00
295
2015-07-29 07:00:00
287
287 USD
1770 CNY
3
20
1.5
8
n/a
0.6
1.1
2015-08-08 12:00:00
275.75
2015-08-09 14:00:00
267.60
257 USD
1600 CNY
5
30
2
8
n/a
0.6
1.2
2015-07-24 11:00:00
285.50
2015-07-27 07:00:00
289.80
300 USD
1870 CNY
5
30
1.20
4
0.1
0.3
0.6
2015-07-10 08:45:00
280.00
2015-07-12 18:00:00
306.50
300 USD
1860 CNY
5
30
2
26
0.9
1.9
3.7
2015-07-05 16:00:00
263.50
2015-07-06 15:45:00
272.25
280 USD
1700 CNY
5
30
1
8
0.3
0.6
1.2
2015-05-14 21:15:00
235.00
2015-05-16 21:00:00
235.00
220 USD
1320 CNY
5
30
3.99
0
n/a
0.0
0.0
2015-05-03 02:15:00
235.50
2015-05-04 15:30:00
238
250 USD
1520 CNY
3
15
0.5
2
0.1
0.2
0.3
2015-04-30 07:45:00
227.28
2015-04-30 20:00:00
240
240 USD
1530 CNY
5
30
0.5
12
0.5
1.0
2.1
2015-04-04 06:30:00
254
2015-04-04 17:00:00
254
286 USD
1680 CNY
5
30
1
0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2015-03-29 04:00:00
247
2015-04-02 09:00:00
245
213 USD
1305 CNY
10
50
4.5
2
n/a
0.2
0.3
2015-03-22 18:45:00
262
2015-03-23 15:45:00
267
275 USD
1700 CNY
5
30
0.1
5
0.2
0.4
0.8
2015-03-20 05:00:00
260
2015-03-21 13:00:00
260
235 USD
1400 CNY
5
30
4.26
0
n/a
0.0
0.0
2015-03-19 05:45:00
253
2015-03-19 08:45:00
260
269 USD
1650 CNY
5
30
0.5
7
0.3
0.5
1.1
2015-03-09 04:00:00
282.50
2015-03-13 12:00:00
291
340 USD
2050 CNY
5
30
2
8
0.3
0.5
1.1
2015-02-27 00:00:00
240
2015-03-10 12:00:00
296
296 USD
1826 CNY
5
30
1
56
2.3
3.6
9.3
2015-02-26 20:00:00
236
2015-02-27 04:00:00
256
256 USD
1590 CNY
5
30
1
20
0.8
1.2
3.4
2015-02-19 00:00:00
233
2015-03-02 16:00:00
270
300 USD
1900 CNY
5
30
3
37
1.6
2.1
6.4
2015-02-14 04:00:00
242
2015-02-14 20:00:00
260
260 USD
1600 CNY
5
30
2
18
0.7
0.9
3.0
2015-02-06 12:00:00
218
2015-02-07 08:00:00
234
234 USD
1480 CNY
5
30
2
16
0.7
0.9
2.9
2015-01-31 16:00:00
230
2015-02-01 08:00:00
212
210 USD
1330 CNY
5
30
3.10
18
n/a
0.9
3.1
2015-01-21 17:00:00
215
2015-01-25 07:00:00
250
260 USD
1550 CNY
5
30
1
35
1.6
1.7
6.5
2015-01-18 08:00:00
205
2015-01-24 16:00:00
241
260 USD
1550 CNY
15
100
5
36
1.8
1.6
7.0
2015-01-15 09:57:00
201
2015-01-15 13:00:00
230
230 USD
1475 CNY
6
51
2.46
29
1.4
1.2
5.8
2015-01-12 16:00:00
270
2015-01-13 15:25:00
235
255 USD
1590 CNY
5
30
4.44
35
n/a
1.0
5.2



Loser Trade Recommendations

The following trades had their entry conditions fulfilled but price subsequently moved against these positions and stopped them out.

Description
Open Date
Open Price
(USD)
Close Date
Close Price
(USD)
Target
Stop Loss
Draw Down
(USD)
Distance
(USD)
1:1
(BTC)
2.5:1
(BTC)
20:1
(BTC)


2015-12-04 04:00:00
360
2015-12-04 09:00:00
357
340 USD
2150 CNY
5
30
5
-3
n/a
-0.2
-0.3
2015-08-10 13:00:00
263.80
2015-08-11 21:30:00
268.00
252 USD
1550 CNY
5
30
5
4
n/a
0.3
0.6
2015-05-17 09:00:00
236
2015-05-18 20:00:00
233
248 USD
1530 CNY
3
15
3
-3
-0.1
-0.3
-0.5
2015-05-04 11:15:00
241.50
2015-05-05 03:45:00
236.50
250 USD
1520 CNY
3
15
5
-5
-0.2
-0.4
-0.8
2015-03-18 12:30:00
272
2015-03-18 15:25:00
267
288 USD
1790 CNY
5
30
5
-5
-0.2
-0.3
-0.7
2015-03-16 12:00:00
290
2015-03-17 13:45:00
287
336 USD
2050 CNY
10
50
3
-3
-0.1
-0.2
-0.4
2015-02-19 16:00:00
243
2015-02-18 20:00:00
238
300 USD
1900 CNY
5
30
5
-5
-0.2
-0.3
-0.8
2015-02-04 12:45:00
227
2015-02-05 12:00:00
220
270 USD
1680 CNY
7
40
7
-7
-0.3
-0.4
-1.2



Invalidated Trade Recommendations

Trade Recommendations where no trade positions were opened, either because their entry conditions were never fulfilled, or because an alternative Trade Recommendation took preference.

Description
Issue Date
Entry Price
Target
 
Reason for Invalidation




2015-10-19 11:52:51
400 USD
2600 CNY
550 USD
3300 CNY
 
sideways consolidation sets in
2015-09-28 12:36:49
244 USD
1570 CNY
238 USD
1530 CNY
 
upside continuation
2015-09-28 12:36:49
260 USD
1700 CNY
250 USD
1600 CNY
 
upside continuation
2015-09-21 12:06:19
234 USD
1500 CNY
210 USD
1380 CNY
 
trend continuation
2015-08-07 20:00:28
225 USD
1440 CNY
187 USD
1250 CNY
 
upward continuation
2015-07-21 07:10:44
276 USD
1700 CNY
250 USD
1600 CNY
 
return to decline
2015-07-21 07:10:44
289 USD
1785 CNY
325 USD
1994 CNY
 
change in market direction
2015-07-21 07:10:44
286 USD
1770 CNY
299 USD
1840 CNY
 
Price decline continues
2015-06-18 21:38:43
245 USD
1525 CNY
234 USD
1460 CNY
 
Continuation higher – Grexit fears stoke buying
2015-05-09 01:32:20
245 USD
1520 CNY
255 USD
1580 CNY
 
price resumed decline
2015-05-02 00:02:25
228 USD
1420 CNY
210 USD
1300 CNY
 
Entry condition not fulfilled
2015-04-24 00:03:14
233 USD
1445 CNY
250 USD
1550 CNY
 
Entry condition not met
2015-03-12 00:03:22
290 USD
1813 CNY
340 USD
2050 CNY
 
entry conditions not met
2015-01-27 17:11:00
255 USD
1620 CNY
360 USD
1620 CNY
 
No Buy signal from the moving averages, price correction continues decline
2015-01-20 05:15:00
210 USD
1290 CNY
150 USD
1300 CNY
 
Contingency trade took preference to the Buy side
2015-01-15 17:00:00
201 USD
1210 CNY
230 USD
1492 CNY
 
20-period MA fails to cross over 50MA at H1 timeframe


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